Model of Agricultural Production and its Impact on the Environment (MAgPIE)

The global land-use allocation model MAgPIE is used to assess the competition for land and water under future scenarios of rising food, energy and material demand, climate change and ambitious mitigation policies. MAgPIE, in connection with the dynamic global vegetation and hydrology model LPJmL provides a consistent link between economic development, food and energy demand in different world regions with spatially explicit patterns of production, land use change and water constraints. The macroeconomic and climate policy feedbacks are being provided by the REMIND model. MAgPIE can also be run in fully coupled mode with the REMIND model.

MAgPIE provides a holistic framework to explore future transformation pathway of the land system including multiple trade-offs with ecosystem services and sustainable development.

MAgPIE in a nutshell

MAgPIE is a global multi-regional partial equilibrium model of the land-use sector. MAgPIE takes regional economic conditions such as demand for agricultural commodities, technological development and production costs as well as spatially explicit data on potential crop yields, carbon stocks and water constraints (from LPJmL) under current and future climatic conditions into account. Based on these, the model derives specific land use patterns, agricultural water use, greenhouse gas dynamics, yields and total costs of agricultural production for each grid cell. MAgPIE also contains a nitrogen and phosphorus flow module that transforms all biomass flows in the model into nitrogen phosphorus flows.

The objective function of the land use model is to minimize global costs of production for a given amount of regional food and bioenergy demand in recursive dynamic mode. The model is driven by demand for agricultural commodities. Future trends in food demand are derived from a cross-country regression analysis, based on future scenarios on GDP and population growth. Food and feed energy can be produced by 20 cropping and 3 livestock activities. MAgPIE considers different livestock production systems which affect vegetal agricultural production differently through competition for land and water, provision of manure and feed demand for primary crops as well as for food crop residues and food industry byproducts. The production of agricultural commodities is associated with costs for labor, capital, fertilizer, technological change, transport, and land conversion. Demand and costs enter the model at the regional level. For meeting the demand, the model endogenously decides, based on cost-effectiveness, about the level of intensification (yield-increasing technological change), land expansion, and production relocation (intra-regionally and inter-regionally).

MAgPIE publications (selection)

  • Stevanovic M, Popp A, Lotze-Campen H, Dietrich JP, Müller C, Bonsch M, Schmitz C, Bodirsky B, Humpenöder F, Weindl I (2016): High-End Climate Change Impacts on Agricultural Welfare. Science Advances 8(2)
  • Kreidenweis U, Humpenöder F, Stevanovic M , Bodirsky B, Kriegler E, Lotze-Campen H, Popp A (2016) Afforestation to mitigate climate change: impacts on food prices under consideration of albedo effects. Environmental Research Letters 11
  • Weindl I., Lotze-Campen H., Popp A., Müller C., Havlík P.,Herrero M., Schmitz C. and Rolinski S. (2015) Livestock in a changing climate: production system transitions as an adaptation strategy for agriculture . Environmental Research Letters 10, 094021
  • Bonsch, M., Popp, A., Biewald A., Rolinski, S., Schmitz, C., Hoegner, K., Heinke, J. Ostberg, S., Dietrich, J. P., Bodirsky, B., Lotze-Campen, H., Stevanovic, M., Humpenöder, F., Weindl, I. (2015) Environmental flow provision: implications for agricultural water and land-use at the global scale. Global Environmental Change. 30, 113–132.
  • Popp A., Humpenöder F., Weindl. I., Bodirsky B., Bonsch M., Lotze-Campen H., Müller C., Biewald A., Rolinski S., Stevanovic M., Dietrich JP. (2014) Land use protection for climate change mitigation. Nature Climate Change 4, 1095–1098.
  • Biewald, A., Rolinski, S., Lotze-Campen, H., Schmitz, S., Dietrich, J.P. (2014): Valueing the impact of trade on local blue water. Ecological Economics. 101, 43–53.
  • Humpenöder F, Popp A, Dietrich J, Klein D, Lotze-Campen H, Bonsch M, Bodirsky B, Weindl I, Stevanovic M, Müller C (2014): Investigating afforestation and bioenergy CCS as climate change mitigation strategies. Environmental Research Letters 9 (6): 064029.
  • Bodirsky BL, Popp A, Lotze-Campen H, Dietrich JP, Rolinski S, Weindl I, Schmitz C, Müller C, Bonsch M, Humpenöder F, Biewald A, Stevanovic M (2014): Reactive nitrogen requirements to feed the world in 2050 and potential to mitigate nitrogen pollution, Nature Communications, 5, 3858
  • Dietrich J.P., Schmitz S, Lotze-Campen, H., Popp, A. and Müller, C. (2014): Forecasting technological change in agriculture - An endogenous implementation in a global land use model. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 81, 236–249
  • Schmitz, C., Biewald, A., Lotze-Campen, H., Popp, A., Dietrich, J.P., Bodirsky, B., Krause, M., Weindl, I. (2012) Trading more Food - Implications for Land Use, Greenhouse Gas Emissions, and the Food System, Global Environmental Change, 22(1): 189-209.
  • Popp A., Lotze-Campen H. and Bodirsky B. (2010) Food consumption, diet shifts and associated non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions from agricultural production. Global Environmental Change 20: 451-462
  • Lotze-Campen, H., Müller, C., Bondeau, A., Jachner, A., Popp A., Lucht, W. (2008) Food demand, productivity growth and the spatial distribution of land and water use: a global modelling approach. Agricultural Economics, 39(3): 325-338.